The 2022 World Series turned on the most important element of hitting today. The defining moment arrived in the fourth inning of Game 5: The series stood tied at two games, and the game stood tied at one run. The series would diverge depending on which team scored the next run. Astros rookie shortstop Jeremy Peña stepped into the box against Phillies starter Noah Syndergaard.
What happened next defines how much the classic pitcher-batter confrontation has changed and how teams evaluate what makes a great hitter has changed. For a hundred years the fastball was the ultimate measuring stick. Pitchers tested rookies on whether they could hit “major league velocity.” They established their fastball so they could blend in their appropriately named “secondary” pitches. They threw challenge fastballs when behind in the count.
No more. These are the new rules of engagement:
Fastballs, for the first time in the history of the game, no longer account for the majority of pitches (48.6% last year, not including cutters).Most breaking pitches are not in the strike zone (56%).Hitters bat .121 when they chase breaking pitches out of the zone, with one hit for every 19 times they try to hit one.
Rookies like Peña already have seen elite velocity in the minors. They can train off high-velocity pitching machines that make the average big league fastball of 93.7 mph look like BP. The true measuring stick now: swing decisions, especially against breaking pitches that wind up out of the strike zone, known as “chase breaking pitches.” The quality of those swing decisions is how young hitters are being evaluated.
“I think if you break it down,” says Mariners hitting coach Jarret DeHart, “hitting in the major leagues today is about hitting somebody’s best fastball and hanging breaking ball. If you lay off the chase breaking ball, you’re going to be pretty good.”
Careers can be made or lost based on swing decisions against breaking balls. So, too, can a World Series.