A full day of Major League Baseball gets started on Saturday afternoon and rolls through the evening.
The story of the last two weeks has been the shaky play from the Yankees, relative to its blistering start. However, it seemed like the offense broke out of its slump on Friday against the Blue Jays. Can the team keep it rolling on Saturday with Nestor Cortes on the mound?
Here’s our pick for that game as well as every other one on the stacked Saturday card.
Rockies vs. White Sox Prediction and Pick
Pick: White Sox (-115)
Two of the most futile teams in the big leagues meet on Saturday and I’ll side with the small home favorite.
Rookie Jonathan Cannon has made six starts this season and has showcased a decent breaking ball with pinpoint control (94th percentile walk rate).
His best days are also ahead of him. While he has a 4.59 ERA, his xERA sits at 3.81, meaning some positive regression is coming.
Reds vs. Cardinals Prediction and Pick
Pick: Cardinals (-190)
The Cardinals are justified big favorites with Sonny Gray on the mound, who has been on point all season with a 2.81 ERA with a near-32% strikeout rate.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Pick
Pick: Yankees (-125)
The Yankees skid has been prolonged, but I think the team is in a good spot to snap out of it against the Blue Jays due to an edge on the mound and at the plate.
The Blue Jays struggle against left handed pitching, 24th in OPS, which sets up nicely for Yankees’ starter Nestor Cortes.
Further, Chris Bassitt can’t be trusted. He has diminished control (near-nine percent walk rate) and has an xERA nearly one run higher (3.45 vs. 4.22).
Marlins vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick
Pick: Phillies (-250)
The Phillies had no issues with the Marlins with Bryce Harper out of the lineup, and I expect another win on Saturday against a lowly Miami team with the always capable Aaron Nola on the bump.
Athletics vs. Diamondbacks Prediction and Pick
Pick: Athletics (+170)
Zac Gallen will return to the mound for Arizona after hitting the injury list for a hamstring strain on May 30th, and I’ll fade him in his first start back.
Gallen may be on a pitch count, which can lead to more variance from a shaky Diamondbacks bullpen.
There are enough question marks to take the big underdog.
Nationals vs. Rays Prediction and Pick
Pick: Nationals (+115)
Aaron Civale is due positive regression from his poor metrics, posting a 5.20 ERA against a 4.00 xERA, but there are still some poor numbers indicating it may not come so fast.
Civale has been a victim of a ton of hard contact with his diminishing fastball, allowing a hard-hit percentage of 40.6% (career high) and is a predominantly flyball pitcher (sixth percentile ground ball percentage), meaning he can quickly find himself into trouble.
Astros vs. Mets Prediction and Pick
Pick: Mets (+100)
The Mets should be able to stay hot against the Astros, who are top five in the big leagues against left handed pitching.
Southpaw Framber Valdez has struggled to stay healthy this season and pitch to his Cy Young expectation. Valdez has a fourth percentile hard-hit percentage and has lost his ability to find his strikeout prowess, right at the big league average.
Ride the streaking Mets.
Guardians vs. Royals Prediction and Pick
Pick: Royals (-110)
The Royals, one of the best home teams in baseball, have arguably its best pitcher on the mound in Cole Ragans. Ragans is the superior pitcher with a nasty fastball that strikes out nearly 30% of the batters he has faced this season, and will have the Royals’ bats playing at home to back him up.
Kansas City is the second best hitting team at home this season, a big reason why the team is 29-15 on the year at Kauffman Stadium.
I’ll take the home team in a matchup that is lined like a coin flip.
Cubs vs. Brewers Prediction and Pick
Pick: Cubs (-105)
Justin Steele should continue to pitch to his fine form against a Brewers team that is 20th in OPS against southpaw.
Steele may have an 0-3 record, but he is pitching to a 3.08 ERA with a similar xERA (3.27) while striking out about a quarter of the batters he is facing.
I think this matchup sets up nicely for him to grab his first win of the year.
Pirates vs. Braves Prediction and Pick
Pick: Braves (-155)
Will Paul Skenes, the NL Rookie of the Year front runner, put together another monster effort against a talented Braves roster?
While Skenes is more than capable of handling any big league roster, the Pirates inability to give him run support will stop the team from winning.
The Pirates are hitting .238 against lefties and rank 19th in OPS, but I think we are getting a break on the price because of Skenes.
Padres vs. Red Sox Prediction and Pick
Pick: Padres (+125)
The Red Sox will start Cy Young candidate Tanner Houck (2.18 ERA) on Saturday, but the Padres may be up to the test with Michael King on the mound.
King has been fantastic all season, pitching to a 3.75 ERA with an excellent offspeed pitch arsenal that leads to a 92nd percentile hard-hit percentage. The Red Sox have serious power in the lineup, but King has done a fine job of avoiding blowup innings with his ability to work around hitters.
Dodgers vs. Giants Prediction and Pick
Pick: Giants (+185)
While Tyler Glasnow has been excellent in his first season with the Dodgers, this is simply too wide of a price for him on the road.
Glasnow has a ton of strikeout prowess, he is in the 98th percentile in terms of strikeout rate, but the Giants strikeout at a league average rate and the team held up nicely against him earlier this season. San Francisco tallied three earned runs with four hits in six innings, good enough that can extend this game into the bullpen portion of the evening.
Meanwhile, Erik Miller is an elite groundball pitcher, 93rd percentile with a strong strikeout rate, 27%, that can limit the power of the Dodgers lineup.
Rangers vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick
Pick: Orioles (-155)
The Rangers issues against lefty pitching is well documented, 20th in OPS against southpaws. However, this month as a whole has been trying for the defending World Series champs, as the team limps in batting .227 as a unit in June.
I’ll grab the Orioles at a reasonable price tag.
Tigers vs. Angels Prediction and Pick
Pick: Angels (+105)
The Tigers continue to be overpriced due to a strong pitching staff, but the run support simply isn’t there. Detroit is hitting .213 as a unit this month, and can’t cover this price tag against a better lineup on the road.
Twins vs. Mariners Prediction and Pick
Pick: Twins (-125)
Twins’ starter Pablo Lopez continues to erase a slow start to the season, and his underlying metrics make him a worthwhile bet against a Mariners team that is only hitting .210 in the month of June, the lowest in the big leagues.
Lopez has been a victim of poor variance, his 3.27 xERA is far lower than his 5.11 ERA with an elite strikeout rate of 27%.
I’m counting on the Twins’ starter to roll through the overrated Seattle lineup.